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Last year in the Western Conference Finals, the Dallas Mavericks, led by Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving, defeated the Minnesota Timberwolves 4-1, on their way to a 4-1 NBA Finals loss to the Boston Celtics. Luka Doncic averaged 32 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists per game. Almost a year later, Doncic got traded to the Los Angeles Lakers in one of the craziest trades in sports history. Tonight, Luka Doncic and the Timberwolves face off again, this time in the first round.
On October 2, 2024, the Wolves traded KAT for Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo and lost Kyle Anderson to the Warriors in free agency. The Lakers traded Anthony Davis and Max Christie for Luka Doncic on February 2nd, 2025. Since they got eliminated by Luka and the Mavs, the Wolves have changed drastically. In the 2023 NBA season (with KAT), the Timberwolves finished 56-26 as the third seed. In the 2024 NBA season (post KAT-Randle trade), the Timberwolves finished 49-33.
Last year in the playoffs, Jaden McDaniels was the primary option to guard Doncic, with Anthony Edwards and Kyle Anderson (not on the team anymore) as the secondary defenders. This year, McDaniels will probably still be the primary defender, with Anthony Edwards and Jaylen Clark also guarding the Slovenian superstar. On the other side, Lakers can throw Dorian Finney-Smith, Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, and LeBron James at superstar Anthony Edwards. I would expect a lot of switches and a group effort kind of defense from the Lakers, instead of only one individual for most of the game.
Spread and Odds
FanDuel Sportsbook has LA Lakers ML at -186, while the MIN Timberwolves ML is +156, meaning Lakers are favored. The spread is Lakers -4, which means Lakers are expected to win by 4. The over/under (total points scored in the game) is 216.5, indicating a lower-scoring game. Luka Doncic and Anthony Edward's points over/unders are at 28.5 and 26.5 respectively.
Our Prediction
Paper Tiger Media’s prediction for this Western Conference first round matchup? Lakers win 110-102. Luka Doncic puts up 28 points and 2 steals, LeBron with 25 points, and a big game from 3 for Gabe Vincent. Anthony Edwards will score 37 points on the Lakers, with 21 of those coming in the first half. Julius Randle will underperform, and Rudy Gobert will get cooked by Luka at least once. The halftime score will be Wolves lead 57-49, and Austin Reaves will miss a halfcourt heave at the buzzer.
Los Angeles is the third best team at home in the NBA (behind the Thunder and Cavs). Lakers are coming off 8 days of rest (for their starters). Ultimately, it is the first game of the series, and it could go either way. We could have everything right or (more likely) everything wrong. Let us know what you think!
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